It is not difficult to give predictions, it is rare that you are right

There is a "fixed number" in the middle of the world, and the worries are lost in the chest!

Predicting this sacred function has an important guiding role in our work and life. But the life of researchers in the semiconductor industry last year may not be easy.

Originally thinking of a market that lacked significant technical power and weak demand, as long as the base of the previous year was adjusted, it could make a difference.

Who knows, because of the increasing prices, tracking the market for more than 10 years, taking market demand as the guide, considering multiple latitudes and multiple variables, inquiring from all sides, and making painstaking and empirical predictions, I was repeatedly beaten.

(Distressed them for a second)

There is a friend next to me who just corrected last year's data and this year's forecast is again in sight.

He knows that Taiqian enterprise has internal big data, market analysis report, and first-line resources. When they meet, they open the door and talk to me. I want to verify a sentence repeatedly: "You said, the components will continue this year. Is it going up?"

(You are an expert, do you ask me?)

Do not want to lose Future's face, go home and make up for the research report of 2018 by major mainstream analysis institutions in the first quarter. There seems to be none.

In fact, there are more than one. The rhythm of the price increase last year disrupted the rhythm of the mainstream analysis agencies in the world for 2017, and it also increased the divergence of predictions for 2018.

How big is the difference?

(Well, it’s probably so big: from 7% to 21%)

One

World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS): Estimated 9.5% up in 2018 (released on February 2, 2018)

A year ago, after experiencing a growth of 1.1% in 2016, WSTS had estimated a growth of 6.5% for 2017 (February 2017), and believed that this was already a very strong (original Strong) result. Of course, everyone has experienced the final result.

In February of this year, WSTS used another burst of text to briefly express their updates on last year’s summary and their outlook for the entire year of 2018.

This brief, exciting and inspiring words allow us to see the hope of growth from all regions and all products, as well as the arrogant figure of the leading varieties.

two

IC Insights: Adjusted full-year growth forecast for 2018, from 8% to 15% (released on March 3, 2018)

IC Insights once again adjusted the growth rate of the global IC market in 2018 from 8% to 15% in its latest report in March. The reason is that they once again feel the positive market expectations of DRAM and NAND Flash.

The reason for the expected increase in the DRAM market is simple because its average selling price (ASP) is growing faster than expected. In the latest report, IC Insights predicts that the ASP of DRAM in 2018 will be raised by 36% on the basis of 2017 (DRAM ASP surged by 81% in 2017). The ASP of NAND flash memory is expected to grow by 10% this year. Of course, compared with the strong price trend, the growth in shipments of these two types of products in 2018 is not obvious, only 1% and 6%, respectively.

In fact, in the IC industry in the past five years, DRAM has become a direct indicator of the increase and decrease in global IC sales.

(IC Insights: 2018 IC market growth rate in the past five years with or without DRAM comparison chart)

Without DRAM, the market grew by 10%, and with DRAM, directly by 15%. Anything else to say?

three

Future Horizons: 21% growth, ranking highest among all institutions (released on 2018.1)

Among all the forecasting agencies, one agency won the market's attention with its bold forecast in last year's (2017) forecast.

When the data of other families were relatively conservative, Future Horizons had raised its forecast value from 11% to 18% at the beginning of 2017, and further increased it to 20% in September last year, becoming the god of annual forecast.

For the forecast of 2018, Future Horizons once again stood up to increase the 16% released in September 2017 to 21%, which is basically the same as 2017 and is almost three times the average forecast by other institutions.

In answering why he is so high-profile and confident, the CEO of Future Horizons explained his own logic:

Our analysis is based on 4 statistics:

Global economic trends,

IC demand (unit demand),

Wafer capacity

Average sales price of semiconductor components (ASP)

These four major factors will drive each other: the global economic boom will stimulate the demand for IC, and the fab capacity will determine the imbalance between supply and demand, and become the basis for the setting of the IC component ASP.

Economic recovery in 2017: The global economy ushered in the long-awaited recovery in 2017; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its GDP forecast twice in 2017. The rebound in industry and consumer confidence has driven strong demand for semiconductor components.

IC production capacity is not ready, out of stock, and prices rise: but the IC industry's production capacity is completely unprepared, plus the production operation rate and inventory level, have been adjusted to below the level in the past few years; once the production capacity and inventory consumption To do so, the supply will be under huge pressure, resulting in shortages, tight capacity allocation, and ASP pressure after a short delay. As always, memory will be the first component to feel the shock.

When all factors remain unchanged, 2018 will continue in 2017: Therefore, unless a major economic downturn occurs, the strength of the 2017 economic recovery will continue into 2018, further stimulating demand.

At present, there is no sign that the economy will collapse, and the IMF has even revised up its forecast of GDP growth prospects. In view of the fact that production capacity is still very tight, there are still out of stock and waiting for the new production capacity to go online, and the delivery time of up to 12 months, these factors are sufficient to support the overall growth of the semiconductor industry in 2018 to maintain double-digit.

Therefore, history will be repeated exactly the same: as we predicted, this year will still reach 21%.

four

As time goes by, seeing the performance of semiconductors in the first quarter is about to be introduced, more analysis organizations that have originally made single-digit growth have joined the optimistic ranks of double-digit growth.

The most rapid response is Cowan LRA, which is expected to rise by 5.9% (January 2018) pole vault to the expected increase of 16.4% in March 2018. Of course, there is also Semiconductor Intelligence that is originally optimistic about the market this year, and continued its March research and judgment to maintain the expectations made in December last year and an annual increase of 12%.

The reasons for the optimism of these institutions are basically the same as Future Horizons. They believe that from the perspective of the first quarter of 2018:

·

Demand for major electronic equipment remains stable or continues to grow

·

·

Moderate global economic growth

·

·

Although supply and demand tensions will ease, but memory demand is still strong

·

Therefore, 2018 is optimistic and can be expected.

Some remaining institutions are currently cautious for the time being, with a growth range between 7.2%-7.7%. Their main concerns are:

·

Will market demand weaken in the second half of the year?

·

·

Will the subsequent component market continue to be tightly supplied?

·

·

Prices, especially storage ASP trends are unpredictable?

·

It is therefore believed that these factors may eventually cause the market trend to change repeatedly throughout 2018.

Fives

Q: What to do when expectations are not accurate?

Answer: timely adjustment

An authoritative organization may have felt the embarrassment of inconsistent data among semiconductor forecasters. So continuing to track the data of these institutions gives us the opportunity to see the trajectory of major institutions adjusting their expectations.

Take a few screenshots from the official website of the authoritative organization GSA (Global Semiconductor Alliance).

The growth of semiconductors for the whole year of 2017, various institutions expect the adjustment process:

(Picture screenshot from GSA official website)

Not only in 2017, but also in 2016, many institutions have also predicted from the optimistic (positive growth) at the beginning of the year, reversing to zero or negative growth at the end of the year (see the GSA official website for details, which can be traced back to 2014).

It seems that every year, the gap between ideal chasing reality is staged.

But in any case, let us have a complete understanding of the expectations of mainstream institutions for semiconductor growth in 2018: (as of the time of publication), for your reference only.

(Picture screenshot from GSA official website)

Is it difficult to predict?

Perhaps, there will be a few days before the first quarter is over. Perhaps more organizations are continuing to adjust their data gaps. At present, although the span of the analysis results of various companies is still large, it does not matter. I believe that by the end of the year, when the uncertainties gradually become more certain, the data of each will eventually become closer to the truth.

Is it easy?

Perhaps, but in the semiconductor industry, we can be bolder and put forward our own predictions for 2018. The so-called "fixed number" is in the midst of the world. Maybe the truth is in your hands. Welcome to leave a message to share your prediction with us. .