Take some data: give a reminder to roasted goods, also cheer up the electronics manufacturing indust

If there is no domino effect semiconductor merger and acquisition

If it is not insufficient capacity

If there is no technical change, the replacement of old and new products

Is the component market in 2017 still struggling on the edge of positive and negative growth, and looking forward to the next outlet after the smartphone?

Many people said that the growth of the component market in 2017 was nothing more than a "fake fire". Out of stock prices and price increases caused a "false high" in global sales of semiconductors, causing an "illusion" of short supply.

The closer to the end of the year, the more people began to be uncertain and questioned: "How long can the prosperity sustained by shortages and price increases last?" "Will there be a lot of scheduled demand that is double counted (Double Booking), which superficially amplifies the demand?" "" Once the bubble bursts, will the recession follow?"

These questions are not without reason.

This year's "base" is too high, and the memory performance is too "dazzling".

In the latest forecast report given by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS) on November 28, the global semiconductor market size for this year (2017) has been estimated at USD 377.8 billion (an annual increase) since June earlier. 11.5%) was raised again to US$408.91 billion (an annual increase of 20.6%).

In other words, in 2017, global semiconductor sales will exceed the $400 billion mark for the first time, setting a record high, and the annual growth rate will reach a new high level in 7 years (since 2010).

This year's largest contributor memory is expected to grow by 60.1%, and the second largest sensor is expected to grow by 15.9%.

WSTS also gave a forecast for the semiconductor market next year (2018). It is more optimistic that in 2018, all major product categories and regions will be expected to grow. The overall market will grow by 7%, and memory growth will be the highest (9.3%), followed by It is photoelectric (8.2%) and sensor (7.2). (See the picture below for details)

(Photo source: WSTS, click to view larger image)

This kind of estimation can be regarded as a prudence in the aftermath of rapid growth.

More investment banks such as Morgan Stanley directly believed in the previous report that the memory chip market boom is very likely to peak quickly and face downside risks because the price of NAND flash memory has begun to reverse in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the DRAM market demand situation after the first quarter of next year is already an alarm that is difficult to predict.

If the price increase effect subsides, can the rapid growth of semiconductors in 2018 continue to grow under the performance of 2017? It should be marked with a cautious question mark.

The above can also be regarded as a gentle reminder for roasting.

Putting aside factors such as price increases, let us explore from another angle. Is there real demand driving behind this round of component growth? These demands may be the "health" factors under the cover of "false fire", and are expected to become the main driving force for component growth next year after the false fire recedes.

The good news is that at present, the answer is yes.

As far as the current Chinese economy is concerned, it has been gradually adjusted to the L-shape. As of the third quarter of this year, my country's GDP has been running in the range of 6.7-6.9% for 9 consecutive quarters, maintaining medium and high-speed growth. Whether this is characterized as periodic deceleration or trend deceleration, deceleration is affirmative.

However, according to the latest information disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the electronic information manufacturing industry performed well in January-October 2017: the single-month added value of the electronic information manufacturing industry above the designated size has remained above 10% year-on-year (see the chart below for details) ), the growth rate in September reached 16.3%.

(Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website, click to view larger image)

In the official words, "The development momentum of the electronic information manufacturing industry continues to improve, production growth continues to accelerate, exports achieve rapid growth, industry efficiency continues to increase, and fixed asset investment maintains rapid growth."

The research institute Semiconductor Intelligence also gave a similar conclusion of "healthy growth in the production of electronic products".

The report believes that the growth momentum of the major electronic product production regions in 2017 is very obvious. Although the global semiconductor growth rate is close to 20% this year, the memory price increase has contributed a lot, but this is a good sign that the strong growth of electronic products also supports The surge in the semiconductor market.

(Photo source: Semiconductor Intelligence, click to view larger image)

The report data shows that the growth rate of the electronics manufacturing industry in mainland China hit a 6-year high, the US hit an 11-year high, and even Japan has fallen for 10 consecutive years and is expected to achieve positive growth for the first time.

(Photo source: Semiconductor Intelligence, click to view larger image)

Returning to the Chinese electronics manufacturing market, let us break down this year's growth.

Judging from the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the export delivery value of electronic products this year contributed greatly to the added value of the electronics manufacturing industry: in the first three quarters, the export delivery value was 376.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.

As the main force of exports, exports of electromechanical products increased by 13.0% in the first three quarters, accounting for 57.5% of total exports. The growth rate is closely related to the rapid growth of imports and exports of some countries along the Belt and Road. In the first three quarters, my country's imports and exports to Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan and other countries increased by 27.7%, 24.8%, and 41.1%, respectively.

But as expected, smartphone production continues to maintain single-digit growth (and this situation is expected to continue into 2020).

According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to October this year, China produced 16.1917 million mobile phones, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year, of which 1197.9 million were smartphones, an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, and the export delivery value increased by 8.5% year-on-year, of which zero growth in October .

With the big engine shut down, which outlets may promote the growth of China's electronics manufacturing industry next year?

Cars far beyond the smartphone market?

Market research organization IC Insights, in its latest report on the drivers of the semiconductor industry, believes that from 2016 to 2021, in six major end-use application categories, sales of automotive electronic systems will be compounded by 5.4% annually The growth rate (CAGR) growth is expected to become the first driving force for the rapid growth of semiconductors.

(Source: IC Insights, click to view larger image)

This growth trend comes from the increasing demand for electronic systems for vehicles, and at the same time, more and more attention is paid to unmanned (automatic driving) vehicles, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications, and On-board safety, convenience and environmental protection functions, not to mention the interest in electric vehicles (EV).

Driven by this category, it is undoubtedly great news for analog ICs, MCUs, and a wide range of vehicle sensors. Therefore, IC Insights predicts that sales of automotive ICs will increase by 22% in 2017 and will continue to grow by 16% in 2018. The agency also predicted that the global electronic system market size is expected to reach 1.49 trillion US dollars in 2017, of which the automotive market accounts for 9.1%.

PwC Strategy& also mentioned in the latest report "2017 Digital Car Report: Turbulent Automobile Industry": Technology will promote the continuous transformation of the global automotive industry, with automation, electrification, interconnection and mobility services as the primary factors. It is estimated that the market valuation of the digital mobility service industry will reach 2.2 trillion US dollars in 2030, far exceeding today's smartphone market, and can compete with the e-commerce market. (Of course, this is not just the hardware market, but also the service market)

(Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers Strategy, click for larger image)

The industry striding towards the middle and high end?

Industrial electronic systems will rank as the second fastest growing field with a CAGR growth rate of 4.6% (2016-2021). IC Insights believes that this category will be driven by applications such as robots, wearable health devices, and systems that promote the Internet of Things. Analog ICs are expected to account for 45% of the industrial IC market in 2017. Other major growth momentum will depend on products such as power components and photovoltaic components.

At present, China's industry is moving towards the mid-to-high end. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing in the first three quarters increased by 13.4% and 11.6% year-on-year, respectively, which were 6.7 and 4.9 percentage points faster than those of the above-scale industries. The PMI indices of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing in November were 52.9% and 53.2%, respectively, continuously higher than the overall level of manufacturing.

The first industrial robot?

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October this year, China's industrial robot output reached 104,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 68.9%. Judging from the sales of major domestic robot manufacturers, this year has achieved substantial growth.

In its latest forecast of the entire robot industry, market research agency IDC also believes that among the top ten robot trends in 2018, industrial robots will be favored.

IDC predicts that by 2019, the application of robots will increase by one-third, and 60% of G2000 high-tech manufacturers will focus on the deployment of industrial robots. IDC also predicts that by 2020, the global mobile security robot market will grow by nearly three times, and security robots, warehousing robots and intelligent industrial robots will become mainstream in the market.

Although in the short term, industrial robots may not be able to play a substantial role in the overall semiconductor sales due to their small size, but they will certainly promote the progress of semiconductors at the technical level.

The semiconductors that make up robots are closer to industrial equipment and automobiles. Robots that need to use motors to drive their internal mechanisms must be equipped with many analog components, power components, and sensors. The analog semiconductors and power semiconductors that are gradually expanding recently are expected to expand rapidly with the increase of robots.

(Photo source: IDC, click to view larger image)

The AI that is built into every device?

Market research organization TrendForce believes in its latest forecast that the impact of AI on the semiconductor industry has gradually emerged from the two indicators of sales opportunities and production mode upgrades, including OS manufacturers, EDA, IP manufacturers, and IC chip manufacturers all targeted AI applications in 2017. The introduction of a new generation of architecture and product planning, the impact of AI will continue to expand in 2018, and it is expected that the compound annual growth rate of semiconductors in 2018-2022 will be 3.1%, driving semiconductor growth.

TrendForce also pointed out that AI is affecting the semiconductor industry from two different paths, one is sales opportunities, including new applications bring new products and new technologies, such as more sensors, math accelerators, storage units and communication capabilities, implementation services 2. Build a communications backbone, and simultaneously upgrade data centers and servers, and bring about an upgrade in the semiconductor industry's production methods.

Semico Research's latest survey report predicts that by 2021, the design of artificial intelligence (AI) voice control equipment ASICs is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20%, reaching almost all ASIC designs from 2016 to 2021. Double the growth rate (10.1%).

The report believes that in the next few years, artificial intelligence will appear in almost every device and application in various forms such as pattern recognition, speech recognition and language translation. These devices and applications will all have a processor, DSP or FPGA, and a certain degree of computing resources, and drive the next wave of substantial growth in the semiconductor market.

The above lists only some of the fast-growing areas for reference, but what can be seen is that after the smartphone, the rise of artificial intelligence in the entire field has led to the growth pattern of the next generation of electronic manufacturing.

It is hoped that after the "bubble" in 2017, 2018 will be a year of healthy growth in the electronics manufacturing industry.